3-11 Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis (Appendix to Issue 3)

Given years of pro-independence maneuvering, it’s reasonable to expect Taiwanese people to resent “one country, two systems.” They have also been misled into believing that mainland China is imposing “one country, two systems” on them. However, the reality is quite the opposite. Due to the negative effects of the Hong Kong “one country, two systems” model and the backlash against mainlanders in Taiwan, “one country, two systems” is widely labeled as treasonous by mainland citizens. Because the Taiwanese government’s frequent manipulation of the pro-independence issue in recent years has angered the mainland central government, the mainland officially stripped Taiwan of its substantive political space under “one country, two systems” in August 2022. Furthermore, “one country, two systems” harms China’s geopolitical interests, leaves a window for foreign interference in China’s internal affairs, hinders national integration, slows down China’s historical progress, and sows the seeds for future secession. These are the reasons why the central government refuses to grant Taiwan “one country, two systems.”

This is a prediction of Hong Kong’s future made by Ye Qiquan in 2014. He also made a similar prediction in 2003. These predictions, considered “absurd and idiotic” at the time, were finally validated in 2020. Since 2003, Hong Kong people have gained considerable short-term political benefits from the central government through large-scale political demonstrations. These benefits have encouraged the inertia and enthusiasm of Hong Kong people in organizing large-scale demonstrations. However, these actions have seriously damaged Hong Kong’s political and economic prospects. Hong Kong’s political and economic decline is inevitable. The probability of Hong Kong continuing under “two systems” or “autonomy” after 2047 is close to zero. The probability of Hong Kong being divided into three or more parts by 2047 is close to 100%. Stubborn or hardline anti-central government forces will face “inconsistent treatment.”

Taiwan is China’s magic wand. While lacking concrete evidence, it can be inferred that the promise of unifying Taiwan was a major reason someone turned their fortunes around after the 2011 crisis. Delaying this promise caused them to lose their formidable armor. China’s current family of powerful heroes will also eventually lose their advantage if they miss the opportunity to achieve great things. Conversely, the current family of passive heroes can rebuild their advantage by returning to the right path.

Ye Qiquan believes that the risk to China’s unification does not lie in the Asian alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Europe is the biggest variable in China’s unification process. Furthermore, whether or not Europe participates in wars in Asia also significantly impacts its prospects.

During any action against Taiwan, China would encounter virtually no external resistance. Even in the aftermath, China could remain invincible by adhering to three key principles: preventing Europe from joining the war or destroying Europe as a base for attrition warfare; using medium-range missiles as the primary means of warfare, employing a defensive-offensive strategy to repel the armed forces of the US-led coalition; completely expelling the US military and political presence in East Asia; and ensuring the ability to preemptively eliminate the option of nuclear war. Considering this from multiple dimensions and perspectives, unifying Taiwan would not pose a significant risk to China. The risk is practically controllable, even minimal. At least during the process of landing on Taiwan, no major risks would arise.

Order is always needed. Empires, as a constraining force in the world order, are always needed. The development and decline of empires are influenced by many conditions. A new East Asian order based on Taiwan is a prerequisite for closing the security gap in China’s eastward expansion. Taiwan has, in effect, become the cornerstone of the development of the Chinese empire.