A18 – The decision-making power for China’s reunification lies in its ability to “eliminate the nuclear option”.

Ye Qiquan believes that the risk to China’s unification does not lie in the Asian alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Europe is the biggest variable in China’s unification process. Furthermore, whether or not Europe participates in wars in Asia also significantly impacts its prospects.

Hong Kong people oppose the completion of the details of Article 23 legislation. However, this is their responsibility as stipulated in the Basic Law of Hong Kong. Legally speaking, it is illegal. They have consistently relied on this illegality to gain political and economic benefits from the central government of China. However, this practice is unsustainable. Ye Qiquan predicts that this political inertia will be halted.

Europeans are optimistic about the war in Ukraine. Their support for prolonging or even escalating the conflict is based on a political assumption: the “European victory theory.” From a practical and short-term perspective, this theory is supported by economic data, political realities, and historical experience. In fact, Europe does hold the initiative on the battlefield. However, from a long-term and geopolitical perspective, the “European defeat theory” may be more accurate. Europe has been divided into two parts by this war, leading to a significant weakening of its geopolitical power, a loss of political prestige and moral reputation, and a prolonged period of mutual attrition between the two opposing parts. China’s shift from supporting a strong Europe to weakening it has also contributed to this situation. Some firmly believe that since 2022, Europe has officially entered a potentially 200-year period of decline. During this period, political chaos in Europe will gradually intensify, with European countries not only engaging in external wars but also initiating internal conflicts. European cultural confidence and national self-confidence will gradually decline or even be lost. When Europeans can no longer endure this suffering, they will begin the process of finding a new path for Europe. Advancely evolving Europe’s philosophical logic will be a good way to shorten this decline. Only after Europe has evolved its underlying philosophical logic will they stop relentlessly suppressing the occasional political geniuses who can save Europe.

During any action against Taiwan, China would encounter virtually no external resistance. Even in the aftermath, China could remain invincible by adhering to three key principles: preventing Europe from joining the war or destroying Europe as a base for attrition warfare; using medium-range missiles as the primary means of warfare, employing a defensive-offensive strategy to repel the armed forces of the US-led coalition; completely expelling the US military and political presence in East Asia; and ensuring the ability to preemptively eliminate the option of nuclear war. Considering this from multiple dimensions and perspectives, unifying Taiwan would not pose a significant risk to China. The risk is practically controllable, even minimal. At least during the process of landing on Taiwan, no major risks would arise.

In Hong Kong, whether they are radicals, moderates, or even the pro-establishment camp, they are all powerful local political forces. They are all adept at continuously extracting excessive political and economic benefits from the central government of China.

This is a political prediction made in 2003. It predicted the political failure of the British people 17 years in advance. The British are adept at seizing opportunities to pursue short-term gains. In the early days of the Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao administration, they employed complex political maneuvering to play a new game of…