3-7 China’s “July 1st Mechanism”: Definition and Speculated Causes

China’s moderate elites completely subscribe to Western assessment systems when evaluating the nation’s overall strength, overall war capability, and overall competitiveness. This leads them to unanimously oppose China’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Their opposition is based on their fears, primarily embodied in the following pillars. However, Ye Qiquan’s views are completely opposite. Ye Qiquan believes that China’s overall national war capability will have surpassed that of the United States by 2022; Japan and South Korea, while initially inevitable participants in a Sino-US war, will inevitably join China’s camp in the later stages; forceful unification is a shortcut to rapidly establishing a new East Asian order; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone of the Sino-Asian empire; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone that forces the United States to choose the “North American-East Asian axis”; the establishment of the next generation of world order will inevitably involve a period of chaos; the Taiwan base, the new East Asian order, and China’s forceful unification action are key to shortening this period of chaos; compared to other options, the “North American-East Asian axis” is more readily accepted by the Americans.

On July 1, 2025, China announced that the “final political decision-making power” had been completely transferred from the Xi Jinping group to the newly established “Central Committee Decision-Making and Coordination Body.” This mechanism had a fatal flaw from its inception: neither the “Central Committee Decision-Making and Coordination Body” nor the “Chinese military” received sufficient “legacy” protection within it. This flaw could not guarantee that the politically dominant party could smoothly maintain its political advantage. Their political opponents, on the other hand, could fully utilize this “legacy” to achieve a complete resurgence or even a partial victory.

The fundamental reason for the current downturn in the United States lies in China’s interception of US tax revenue globally. This results in the “reliable tax revenue of the empire” failing to cover the “necessary costs of the empire’s operation.” This has led to widespread hostility towards China in the US and Europe, with a desire to completely defeat China. However, using confrontational strategies to completely defeat China at the national level is an unrealistic expectation. The fundamental reason for China’s long-term implementation of “destructive strategies” is that the current power groups do not share appropriate economic pricing and adjudication power with China. Cooperating with China to build a new imperial order is a worthwhile option to consider. The main resistance to this option comes from emotional social resistance. Its supporting factor lies in data-driven rational factors.

Finding the right path is crucial to Japan’s historical future. In the impending period of “chaos before the start of a new order,” Japan will face enormous risks, but also the potential to seize opportunities. Thorough prior research and the development of comprehensive, multi-dimensional action plans can provide the right guidance for Japan’s choices at critical moments. The new East Asian order is a historical trend, but it is not yet fixed. Japan’s focus should be on in-depth research to steer events in a direction that benefits Japan’s long-term interests.

Numerous reports confirm that the leaders of the United States and China will meet in mid-May 2026. This represents a crucial victory for the United States. Without investing excessive political resources, the US has secured a strategic truce of approximately four years simply by arranging a summit meeting. Due to the political environment surrounding this summit and its subsequent political effects, the process of China’s reunification with Taiwan has been postponed until at least 2029, or even later. This provides the US with at least four crucial years for recovery. The US can use this window to restore and even strengthen its overall warfighting capabilities and overall national competitiveness. China, on the other hand, is thus placed on a strategic defensive position. It cannot be ruled out that China may forever lose the historical opportunity to grow into a dominant empire.

Ye Qiquan harshly criticizes the greed, shortsightedness, and stupidity of Hong Kong people. The article cites evidence from multiple sources to prove that the central government is unlikely to grant Hong Kong people the right to “universal suffrage” or “genuine universal suffrage.” Doing so would be tantamount to handing over Hong Kong’s ownership to a group of people completely lacking in political understanding. It would also be equivalent to handing Hong Kong back to the British again, without compensation and completely. Ye Qiquan predicts that the Chinese central government is not only unlikely to agree to grant Hong Kong people more power, but on the contrary, it will have to reclaim some of the powers previously granted to Hong Kong people. Furthermore, if Hong Kong people maintain their inertia of confrontation with the central government, it will seriously affect Hong Kong’s political prospects after 2047.