3-4 The moderate faction in China hinders national reunification

By叶 其泉
Chinese Current Affairs Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis, Volume 1, Issue 3, August 2026

The fears of China’s moderates have become an obstacle to national reunification.

Ye Qiquan

First release date:

 Tuesday, July 14, 2026

 

Reference data element: (APA)
 

Ye Qiquan. (2026). The fears of China’s moderates become an obstacle to national reunification. Political Forecasting and In-Depth Analysis. August 2026. Vol. 1 (3), 31-39.

 
summary:

Because China’s strategic assessment system is rooted in Western models, the Chinese political system is filled with political elites cultivated under these Western models. Even if these elites still uphold Chinese patriotism, their assessments of overall national strength, overall war capability, and overall competitiveness are entirely subservient to the Western assessment system. This makes them unanimously opposed to China’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Their opposition is based on their fears, which are mainly reflected in the following pillars: China’s overall national strength cannot counter the US bloc; the intervention of Japan and South Korea will drag China into a long-term process of national power depletion; the continued resistance from the Taiwanese people will cause China to suffer long-term losses; and the military unification of Taiwan will set back China’s development process. However, Ye Qiquan’s views are completely opposite to theirs. This is reflected in the following: China’s overall national war capability surpassed that of the United States by 2022; Japan and South Korea, initially inevitable participants in a Sino-US war, would inevitably join China’s camp in the later stages; military unification is a shortcut to rapidly establishing a new East Asian order; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone of the Sino-Asian empire; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone that forces the United States to choose the “North American-East Asian axis”; the establishment of the next generation of world order will inevitably involve a period of chaos; the Taiwan base, the new East Asian order, and China’s military unification action are key to shortening this period of chaos; compared to other options, the “North American-East Asian axis” is more readily accepted by the Americans.

 

https://bookstore.pppnet.net/zh/downloads/fears-of-chinas-moderates/

3-4 中国稳健派的恐惧成为国家统一的阻力

Similar Posts

  • A Japanese Perspective on the “New World Order”

    By叶 其泉

    Finding the right path is crucial to Japan’s historical future. In the impending period of “chaos before the start of a new order,” Japan will face enormous risks, but also the potential to seize opportunities. Thorough prior research and the development of comprehensive, multi-dimensional action plans can provide the right guidance for Japan’s choices at critical moments. The new East Asian order is a historical trend, but it is not yet fixed. Japan’s focus should be on in-depth research to steer events in a direction that benefits Japan’s long-term interests.

  • 3-7 China’s “July 1st Mechanism”: Definition and Speculated Causes

    By叶 其泉

    On July 1, 2025, China announced a transfer of its “final political decision-making power.” This transfer of political power actually occurred before the announcement date. However, the announcement date is a crucial marker of the formal operation of the new political power execution process. Therefore, it is reasonable to name this “unconventional transfer of political power” the “July 1st mechanism.” The reasons for the “July 1st mechanism” may be very complex and difficult to trace clearly, but Xi Jinping’s breach of his political promise to “unify the country during his term” is likely a significant factor. Other contributing factors may involve his conflicts with the military and with other political families in China.

  • A US Perspective on the “Low Tide of the Imperial Order”

    By叶 其泉

    The fundamental reason for the current downturn in the United States lies in China’s interception of US tax revenue globally. This results in the “reliable tax revenue of the empire” failing to cover the “necessary costs of the empire’s operation.” This has led to widespread hostility towards China in the US and Europe, with a desire to completely defeat China. However, using confrontational strategies to completely defeat China at the national level is an unrealistic expectation. The fundamental reason for China’s long-term implementation of “destructive strategies” is that the current power groups do not share appropriate economic pricing and adjudication power with China. Cooperating with China to build a new imperial order is a worthwhile option to consider. The main resistance to this option comes from emotional social resistance. Its supporting factor lies in data-driven rational factors.

  • China’s strategic weapons have an effective range exceeding that of the United States.

    By叶 其泉

    If the United States deploys carrier strike groups as its primary weapon, China’s medium-range missiles will correspondingly join the battlefield. This is determined by the principle of reciprocal response in war. Politicians’ strategies may delay or slightly postpone this response process, but they cannot prevent it from happening. This is one of the essential attributes of war. Furthermore, as the highest-level conflict option for nations, the United States’ ability to withstand a nuclear strike of equal yield is significantly weaker than China’s. Ye Qiquan believes that once China possesses 3,500 nuclear warheads, it will effectively have the ability to “preemptively eliminate the option of nuclear war.” Whether analyzed from the perspective of the “effective range” of strategic weapons or from the perspective of actually withstanding a nuclear strike, Ye Qiquan believes that China has the advantage.

  • Under the national security mechanism, Hong Kong people no longer have room to play dirty tricks.

    By叶 其泉

    Hong Kong people oppose the completion of the details of Article 23 legislation. However, this is their responsibility as stipulated in the Basic Law of Hong Kong. Legally speaking, it is illegal. They have consistently relied on this illegality to gain political and economic benefits from the central government of China. However, this practice is unsustainable. Ye Qiquan predicts that this political inertia will be halted.

  • 3-1 Delaying China’s Reunification: The United States Wins a Key Battle

    By叶 其泉

    Numerous reports confirm that the leaders of the United States and China will meet in mid-May 2026. This represents a crucial victory for the United States. Without investing excessive political resources, the US has secured a strategic truce of approximately four years simply by arranging a summit meeting. Due to the political environment surrounding this summit and its subsequent political effects, the process of China’s reunification with Taiwan has been postponed until at least 2029, or even later. This provides the US with at least four crucial years for recovery. The US can use this window to restore and even strengthen its overall warfighting capabilities and overall national competitiveness. China, on the other hand, is thus placed on a strategic defensive position. It cannot be ruled out that China may forever lose the historical opportunity to grow into a dominant empire.