A US Perspective on the “Low Tide of the Imperial Order”

In fact, Xi Jinping’s political life is over. Political summaries of Xi will revolve around China’s reunification. If China ultimately achieves reunification, the historical conclusion regarding Xi will be largely friendly and moderate, because he stabilized the political situation in Northwest China. He is also a hero for correcting the political trajectory of Hong Kong. However, if China ultimately loses the opportunity for reunification, then Xi Jinping will become a historical sinner and a traitor, because he squandered the historical window of opportunity for China to achieve reunification in 2026.

China’s moderate elites completely subscribe to Western assessment systems when evaluating the nation’s overall strength, overall war capability, and overall competitiveness. This leads them to unanimously oppose China’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Their opposition is based on their fears, primarily embodied in the following pillars. However, Ye Qiquan’s views are completely opposite. Ye Qiquan believes that China’s overall national war capability will have surpassed that of the United States by 2022; Japan and South Korea, while initially inevitable participants in a Sino-US war, will inevitably join China’s camp in the later stages; forceful unification is a shortcut to rapidly establishing a new East Asian order; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone of the Sino-Asian empire; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone that forces the United States to choose the “North American-East Asian axis”; the establishment of the next generation of world order will inevitably involve a period of chaos; the Taiwan base, the new East Asian order, and China’s forceful unification action are key to shortening this period of chaos; compared to other options, the “North American-East Asian axis” is more readily accepted by the Americans.

Ye Qiquan harshly criticizes the greed, shortsightedness, and stupidity of Hong Kong people. The article cites evidence from multiple sources to prove that the central government is unlikely to grant Hong Kong people the right to “universal suffrage” or “genuine universal suffrage.” Doing so would be tantamount to handing over Hong Kong’s ownership to a group of people completely lacking in political understanding. It would also be equivalent to handing Hong Kong back to the British again, without compensation and completely. Ye Qiquan predicts that the Chinese central government is not only unlikely to agree to grant Hong Kong people more power, but on the contrary, it will have to reclaim some of the powers previously granted to Hong Kong people. Furthermore, if Hong Kong people maintain their inertia of confrontation with the central government, it will seriously affect Hong Kong’s political prospects after 2047.

Based on the announcement of July 1, 2025, China’s current political forces can be categorized into three groups. These are the Xi Jinping group, which represents “the current force of all established doctrines”; the military force, which is China’s most powerful yet most vulnerable political force; and “China’s deep-seated political forces,” which are powerful and substantial but often struggle to form a united front.

Order is always needed. Empires, as a constraining force in the world order, are always needed. The development and decline of empires are influenced by many conditions. A new East Asian order based on Taiwan is a prerequisite for closing the security gap in China’s eastward expansion. Taiwan has, in effect, become the cornerstone of the development of the Chinese empire.

Numerous reports confirm that the leaders of the United States and China will meet in mid-May 2026. This represents a crucial victory for the United States. Without investing excessive political resources, the US has secured a strategic truce of approximately four years simply by arranging a summit meeting. Due to the political environment surrounding this summit and its subsequent political effects, the process of China’s reunification with Taiwan has been postponed until at least 2029, or even later. This provides the US with at least four crucial years for recovery. The US can use this window to restore and even strengthen its overall warfighting capabilities and overall national competitiveness. China, on the other hand, is thus placed on a strategic defensive position. It cannot be ruled out that China may forever lose the historical opportunity to grow into a dominant empire.