3-2: The US wins another game; Chinese politicians offer a letter of surrender.

This issue primarily discusses China’s “July 1st Mechanism” and Chinese reunification. The United States, by arranging a summit between the two countries’ leaders, has postponed China’s reunification process. This is a significant victory. It also discusses China’s announcement on July 1, 2025, regarding the “transfer of final political decision-making power,” naming this “irregular power transfer” process the “July 1st Mechanism.” The reasons for this power transfer, its structural flaws, and the prospects for power drift are also discussed.

Ye Qiquan believes that the risk to China’s unification does not lie in the Asian alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Europe is the biggest variable in China’s unification process. Furthermore, whether or not Europe participates in wars in Asia also significantly impacts its prospects.

In fact, Xi Jinping’s political life is over. Political summaries of Xi will revolve around China’s reunification. If China ultimately achieves reunification, the historical conclusion regarding Xi will be largely friendly and moderate, because he stabilized the political situation in Northwest China. He is also a hero for correcting the political trajectory of Hong Kong. However, if China ultimately loses the opportunity for reunification, then Xi Jinping will become a historical sinner and a traitor, because he squandered the historical window of opportunity for China to achieve reunification in 2026.

China’s moderate elites completely subscribe to Western assessment systems when evaluating the nation’s overall strength, overall war capability, and overall competitiveness. This leads them to unanimously oppose China’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Their opposition is based on their fears, primarily embodied in the following pillars. However, Ye Qiquan’s views are completely opposite. Ye Qiquan believes that China’s overall national war capability will have surpassed that of the United States by 2022; Japan and South Korea, while initially inevitable participants in a Sino-US war, will inevitably join China’s camp in the later stages; forceful unification is a shortcut to rapidly establishing a new East Asian order; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone of the Sino-Asian empire; the new East Asian order is the cornerstone that forces the United States to choose the “North American-East Asian axis”; the establishment of the next generation of world order will inevitably involve a period of chaos; the Taiwan base, the new East Asian order, and China’s forceful unification action are key to shortening this period of chaos; compared to other options, the “North American-East Asian axis” is more readily accepted by the Americans.

On July 1, 2025, China announced a transfer of its “final political decision-making power.” This transfer of political power actually occurred before the announcement date. However, the announcement date is a crucial marker of the formal operation of the new political power execution process. Therefore, it is reasonable to name this “unconventional transfer of political power” the “July 1st mechanism.” The reasons for the “July 1st mechanism” may be very complex and difficult to trace clearly, but Xi Jinping’s breach of his political promise to “unify the country during his term” is likely a significant factor. Other contributing factors may involve his conflicts with the military and with other political families in China.

Appendix to Volume 1, Issue 3 of the magazine *Political Forecasting and In-Depth*. Includes: “The Risks of Delaying Unification for Xi Jinping” (This forecast was initially published on March 19, 2025, and officially released on September 20, 2025. Prior to release, it circulated internally as a confidential document); “Node 2026: No Time to Delay” (This forecast indicates that delaying the start of unification would pose significant political risks to Xi Jinping, his group, and his family); and “Advertisements Related to Three Groups of Political Forces in China” (This forecast identifies risks associated with all three political forces in China).