Based on China’s July 1, 2025 announcement mechanism, it can be determined that the Xi Jinping group is currently the weaker party. The July 1, 2025 announcement has stripped Xi Jinping and his group of their final decision-making power from the power execution system. The two significant victories on October 23, 2025, and January 24, 2026, have failed to salvage their strategic weaknesses. Unless they are fully reborn by February 2027, they will “slowly, procedurally, enter their predetermined end.” In this predetermined end, a very small number of members will be able to achieve effective cooperation with the next power collective. Most members will enter a process of political decline. Some members will face severe political repercussions. In particular, Xi Jinping’s family, his maternal family, and the family of his wife will suffer severe political retaliation. However, this group still has the possibility of a complete rebirth.
The Chinese military is the main force driving the political turmoil in China in 2025. Even though Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli have been cut off from their ties with the military, the military has only suffered a “campaign defeat.” They remain the main force stabilizing China’s political situation. However, the military and its leaders have serious flaws. They have consistently ignored the importance of “traditional authority” to them. This is not only the main reason for Zhang Youxia’s defeat, but will also become a sword hanging over the heads of current military leaders. The lack of politically sound leaders is another major deficiency of the military. Military leaders must clearly recognize that they are both the most powerful force and the most vulnerable political force in China. They may not be able to share in the fruits of victory, and even worse situations may occur. They will bear “historical responsibility” for this political turmoil.
Overall, China’s extra-mandate political force is currently the most powerful. They only need to prevent the Xi Jinping regime from fully resurrecting by February 2027 to achieve their greatest victory: dominating the composition of the next Chinese power structure. As a group, the extra-mandate political force is undoubtedly the most powerful. However, their current leader is not “strong and invincible.” The possibility of a sudden political death cannot be ruled out. Even worse is possible: even if the Xi Jinping regime fails to fully resurrect by February 2027, they will not be able to dominate the composition of the next power structure. They may not only fail to enjoy the fruits of victory but also be thrust into bearing the “historical responsibility” for the political turmoil of 2025.
Currently, none of the three parties are completely defeated, nor can any party guarantee a complete victory. All three political forces in China need to find a way out of this predicament.
Key points and concepts:
July 1 mechanism
Daotongfang (Xi Jinping Group)
military
Chinese political forces
Weaknesses and Strengths
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2- The respective political deficiencies of the three political forces in China