The Boundaries of the Application of the Theory of European Victory
Ye Qiquan’s first appearance: June 16, 2025
Abstract: European politicians and public opinion generally support the war in Ukraine and are striving to prolong and intensify it. This fact is based on three main reasons: historical idealism rooted in widespread anti-Russian sentiment, realistic idealism fueled by persistent anti-Russian sentiment, and quantifiable political and economic advantages. The first two form the basis of public opinion under the guise of political correctness. The latter becomes a tool for politicians to pursue their political interests. However, the European victory theory has its limitations. Once these limitations are crossed, Europe’s quantifiable political and economic advantages cease to exist, thus triggering another war prediction: the European defeat theory. Both the European victory and European defeat theories have their fertile ground. Their suitable ground depends on the changing international situation and the shifting geopolitical forces.
Conclusion: The “European Victory Theory” is based on an analysis of the operational mechanisms of the Ukrainian war over the past three years. Although the war is not yet over, the outcome is largely predetermined. This was achieved by establishing a “Ukrainian defense line” and a “northern blockade line” to isolate Russia from the European development process. By prolonging the war, continuously depleting and compressing Russia, and awaiting further political changes, this approach is conducive to realizing European realism and historical ideals. Not only do numerous economic and social indicators support the “European Victory Theory,” but the course of the war and the actual front lines also validate the continued validity of this theory. This theory may provide legitimacy for the continuation of the Ukrainian war, making an end to the war and an effective ceasefire difficult. However, the “European Victory Theory” may have a boundary of applicability. This boundary may limit its application in eastern Ukraine and beyond, bounded by the L2 line.
Footnotes: 1. All calculation data are from the World Bank database and other widely recognized sources. Please refer to Appendix 2, Data and Materials, for details. All data used in the calculations were published before April 2022. Due to the sheer volume of work, annual data updates are not possible. Even if calculation data needs to be updated due to changes, the 2022 data will still be used to avoid disrupting the overall calculation system.
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