3-1 Delaying China’s Reunification: The United States Wins a Key Battle

As a power mechanism with structural flaws, China’s “July 1st mechanism” is bound to experience a shift in power. The possibilities for this shift within the Chinese military include remaining dormant, shifting towards the Xi Jinping faction, further shifting towards the “Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating bodies,” and even evolving into a completely independent political force. The overall trend for the Xi Jinping faction is a continuous decline. Some members may escape unfavorable situations individually. Theoretically, the possibility of a full-fledged resurgence of the Xi Jinping faction cannot be ruled out. Internal shifts within the “Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating bodies” will be the primary direction. When this power structure shift occurs, powerful political families in China will inevitably be drawn into the process.

The fundamental reason for the current downturn in the United States lies in China’s interception of US tax revenue globally. This results in the “reliable tax revenue of the empire” failing to cover the “necessary costs of the empire’s operation.” This has led to widespread hostility towards China in the US and Europe, with a desire to completely defeat China. However, using confrontational strategies to completely defeat China at the national level is an unrealistic expectation. The fundamental reason for China’s long-term implementation of “destructive strategies” is that the current power groups do not share appropriate economic pricing and adjudication power with China. Cooperating with China to build a new imperial order is a worthwhile option to consider. The main resistance to this option comes from emotional social resistance. Its supporting factor lies in data-driven rational factors.

Order is always needed. Empires, as a constraining force in the world order, are always needed. The development and decline of empires are influenced by many conditions. A new East Asian order based on Taiwan is a prerequisite for closing the security gap in China’s eastward expansion. Taiwan has, in effect, become the cornerstone of the development of the Chinese empire.

A war has effectively divided Russia into the “new political power bloc.” A “political buffer zone” is effectively established, isolating Russia from the development process of Europe. Europe established this buffer zone not only with the immediate goal of weakening Russia, but also with the expectation that it will bring more historical benefits. Moving this buffer zone to a geographical location most favorable to Russia’s long-term national interests will be a long-term national pursuit for Russia. This goal may take 100 years to achieve, or it may be accelerated. Russia and China have a long history of complexities, geopolitical complexities, and significant differences in cultural characteristics. These factors make the two countries wary of each other, hinder each other, and pay corresponding real and historical costs. However, the development priorities and expansion goals of the two countries in the next 100 years will not have major conflicts, which is a historical window for the two countries to cooperate deeply. Encouraging the leaders of the two countries to recognize this background will be the foundation for improving their cooperation, reducing the historical costs for both countries, and accelerating the growth of the “new political power bloc.” This is a difficult but extremely valuable task. After ensuring that Russia has established a secure national border in a favorable position, seeking a comprehensive reconciliation with Europe is also a solution that is in line with Russia’s long-term national interests. Furthermore, although the probability of this happening is extremely low, there is a theoretical possibility that the United States would seek cooperation with Russia to jointly address the challenge posed by China. Compared to cooperation with China, a cooperative approach between Russia and Europe/the United States is more in line with Russian cultural trends, philosophical logic, identity politics, and communication habits.

Hong Kong people oppose the completion of the details of Article 23 legislation. However, this is their responsibility as stipulated in the Basic Law of Hong Kong. Legally speaking, it is illegal. They have consistently relied on this illegality to gain political and economic benefits from the central government of China. However, this practice is unsustainable. Ye Qiquan predicts that this political inertia will be halted.

Taiwan is China’s magic wand. While lacking concrete evidence, it can be inferred that the promise of unifying Taiwan was a major reason someone turned their fortunes around after the 2011 crisis. Delaying this promise caused them to lose their formidable armor. China’s current family of powerful heroes will also eventually lose their advantage if they miss the opportunity to achieve great things. Conversely, the current family of passive heroes can rebuild their advantage by returning to the right path.