3-10 The Drifting Prospects of China’s “July 1st Succession Shift”

As a power mechanism with structural flaws, China’s “July 1st mechanism” is bound to experience a shift in power. The possibility of this shift within the Chinese military includes remaining dormant, drifting towards the Xi Jinping faction, further drifting towards the “Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating bodies,” and even evolving into a completely independent political force. The overall trend of the Xi Jinping faction is one of continuous decline. In the process of pursuing a safe overall withdrawal, some members may, individually, utilize existing political resources for long-term investments. Of course, theoretically, the possibility of a full-fledged revival for the Xi Jinping faction cannot be ruled out, although the conditions for achieving this political hypothesis are extremely stringent. Compared to the Chinese military and the Xi Jinping faction, internal drift within the “Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating bodies” will be the primary direction. It’s even possible that the “July 1st mechanism” itself is designed to guide this internal drift. When the power structure of the “July 1st mechanism” shifts, China’s powerful political families will inevitably be drawn into this process.