1- The Tripartite Dilemma in Contemporary Chinese Politics

Based on the announcement of July 1, 2025, China’s current political forces can be categorized into three groups. These are the Xi Jinping group, which represents “the current force of all established doctrines”; the military force, which is China’s most powerful yet most vulnerable political force; and “China’s deep-seated political forces,” which are powerful and substantial but often struggle to form a united front.

China’s current political situation has entered a complex and entangled phase. All three major political forces are facing difficulties. Xi Jinping’s faction holds significant “legacy power,” but they are suppressed by the “deep-seated political forces” in internal power-executing procedures and by the “military” in terms of actual power. The military currently possesses the actual ability to control the situation, but it lacks the protection of legitimacy. They are a classic example of being “both the strongest and the most vulnerable.” The “deep-seated political forces” have not yet appeared on the front lines. There are three possibilities: First, they are unwilling to provide the military with legitimacy. Second, the military is unwilling to relinquish too much power to them. Third, they have been deceived into a dead end by the “current legitimacy holder.” None of these three factions are completely dead, nor are any completely alive. They all need to find a way out of this predicament. The current political turmoil in China may have a series of international repercussions.

Currently, all three political forces in China are in trouble.

Xi Jinping Group and the Power of the Lineage

The Chinese military is the most powerful yet most vulnerable political force.

China’s deep-seated political forces are truly powerful, but they are scattered and difficult to unite.

China’s domestic politics and political dilemmas