The Path and Variables to Establishing a New Order in East Asia

The Path and Variables to Establishing a New Order in East Asia

(Research outline/political prediction/political speculation)

Ye Qiquan, September 15, 2025

Abstract: From a historical perspective, a new order in East Asia is a reasonable expectation. This new order reflects a new historical trend: the rise of land-based politics and the decline of sea-based politics. Specifically in East Asia, two factors drive this process. One is the overall trend: land-based weapons have surpassed sea-based weapons in both maximum and effective range. The other is that Taiwan, as China’s land-based power base, has severely eroded its sea power (including naval operational range, naval armed forces, and naval political capabilities). Once the United States’ naval power in East Asia declines, and the naval attributes of Japan and South Korea weaken, the establishment of a new political order in East Asia will be a result of historical progress. However, the process of establishing this new order is subject to variables, and its corresponding outcomes will differ accordingly, with significant differences between the historical process and the historical results. These differences mainly depend on the different ways the United States responds to the new East Asian order. Different US responses can stimulate “two-way,” “three-way,” and “four-way” paths. These three different paths may establish four different new East Asian orders.