This is the preface and table of contents of the inaugural issue of the quarterly journal “Political Forecasting and In-Depth Studies”.
The reason for including a “Review of the Hong Kong Issue” in the inaugural issue is to demonstrate a point by reviewing political predictions that have been proven by history: that is, given the right perspective and analytical methods, an individual’s power can overcome a powerful state apparatus.
Ye Qiquan had made very formal and serious predictions as early as 2003, 2014, and 2019 that “the British people’s excessive pursuit of short-term interests may lead to the premature end of the British political presence in Hong Kong.”
Under the 50-year provisional agreement reached between the Chinese and British governments, the British could have smoothly maintained their political, economic, and intelligence presence in Hong Kong until 2047. However, this political reality, which should have existed smoothly, was prematurely terminated on June 30, 2020. The British ended their political influence and intelligence presence in Hong Kong 27 years early. This fact is not only a major failure for British intelligence agencies, the British diplomatic system, and British policy-making bodies, but also a major failure for relevant US national institutions, as these two countries’ national institutions jointly formulated their Hong Kong policy.
Ye Qiquan warned of this failure 17 years, 6 years, and 1 year in advance, respectively. This event fully demonstrates that gifted individuals can overcome powerful state institutions in their areas of expertise. Ye Qiquan, the lead author of the inaugural issue of this journal, is one such genius.
Ye Qiquan not only made accurate predictions on the Hong Kong issue, but he also demonstrated his political talent in at least the following areas.
- They predicted Xi Jinping as a political strongman at least six years ahead of the entire Western political analysis community.
- Ye Qiquan clearly pointed out that Xi Jinping faced significant political risks when his authority was at its peak.
- Ye Qiquan predicted Hu Jintao’s complete political failure at least 10 years ago. Furthermore, it’s possible that the Xi Jinping faction’s “chance of a brief resurgence by the end of 2025” is also related to Hu Jintao (this speculation cannot be confirmed at present).
- Although he did not formally predict Zhang Youxia’s failure, Ye Qiquan did explicitly point out in an email sent to Ministry of Foreign Affairs personnel in September 2025 that “strongmen in the military are prone to premature deaths.” He also noted that the military is both the most powerful force and the most vulnerable.
Ye Qiquan’s political acumen is not limited to Chinese affairs. In April, May, and June of 2022, he made a series of predictions, including: the war would be protracted; the war would not end or achieve an effective ceasefire before the end of 2026; the Russians would not suffer major defeats on the battlefield; Ukraine would undergo “Yugoslavization” and “Somaliization”; Ukraine’s neighbors would intervene in the war, thus expanding it into a true European war; the war would be protracted between the L1 and L2 lines drawn by Ye Qiquan; and the Russians would establish approximately seven local regimes on Ukrainian soil.
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