The Starting Point, Path, and Significance of the New Order in East Asia (Research Outline) First Public Release by Ye Qiquan: September 15, 2025
Abstract: The new East Asian order is the key and symbol of the formal formation of the Chinese empire. Its cornerstone is the establishment of a solid military pillar in Taiwan by China. This pillar will become a “land bridge salient” or “sword of land power” eroding maritime power. This “land sword” not only compresses the naval power of the United States but also severely weakens the “naval characteristics” of Japan and South Korea. Thus, it lays the foundation for China to establish a “new East Asian order” led by China. Based on Taiwan as a cornerstone, there are at least three paths to establishing a “new East Asian order.” These are: the two-way path, the three-way path, and the four-way path. The two-way path involves a fierce conflict between the US alliance and the China alliance, establishing a new East Asian order through low-intensity conflict and mutual compromise, with the US alliance on one side, Japan and South Korea on the other, and the China alliance on the other. The four-way path involves the Russian alliance on one side, the US alliance on the other, Japan and South Korea on the other, and China on the other, establishing a new East Asian order through struggle and compromise. From a historical perspective, the two-way path best aligns with China’s long-term interests. For Japan, South Korea, and North Korea, it also allows for the establishment of the most stable regional order and the optimal economic order. The different outcomes under different paths will present entirely different political, economic, geopolitical, and historical significance.
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