1- The Tripartite Dilemma in Contemporary Chinese Politics

The announcement of China’s supreme power transfer on July 1, 2025, could be termed the “July Mechanism” or the “July 1 Mechanism.” The parties that established this mechanism missed their best opportunity. They created a flawed mechanism that traps all three parties in a shared predicament: none are completely defeated, and none are guaranteed victory. These three parties are: the traditional power faction, the Xi Jinping group, currently in a political slump; the Chinese military, China’s strongest political stabilizing force, but inherently the weakest; and the forces with Chinese connections, the leaders of the “July Mechanism,” or the “Central Committee’s decision-making and coordinating body,” who currently appear to have the upper hand, but their advantage is unsustainable.

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